The Caspian Sea Earth’s largest enclosed inland body of water has begun to vanish before our eyes. In just the past five years, its water level has dropped by 0.93 meters, a decline of 1.5 meters over the last decade and 2.5 meters in 30 years, with current shrinkage estimated at 20–30 cm annually. This staggering drop is disrupting port operations and coastal infrastructure; Azerbaijan’s oil exports from the Dubendi terminal have already fallen, prompting urgent dredging efforts to keep waterways navigable.

The ecological fallout is equally dire. Iconic species like the sturgeon have seen a loss of up to 45% of their summer and autumn habitats. Caspian seals, now endangered, face even greater peril: a 5-meter decline could eliminate 81% of their breeding sites, while a 10-meter drop could wipe them out almost entirely.

Scientists and governments point to two main drivers: climate change–induced evaporation and reduced inflow from the Volga River dammed upstream in Russia, diminishing a river that contributes 80% of the sea’s water. The crisis echoes the tragic decline of the Aral Sea and without coordinated action, the Caspian may meet a similarly devastating fate.